THE FORGOTTEN COMMUNITIES (I5) ARE THE KEY IN DECIDING THE CHOISEUL/SALTIBUS SEAT? MYTH OR FACT?

 "The Forgotten Communities have the power in their hands. Did they ever think that they would be so powerful?"

The Roblot Combined School Polling Station labelled I5 for election purposes is where voters from Montete, Mondesir Roblot, Dupre, La Maze, River Doree, Debreuil, and Monzie (The Forgotten Communities cast their votes.There has been much speculation in the past and most recently about the role these voters can  play in the upcoming elections in deciding which candidate wins the Choiseul/Saltibus seat. Recently two good friends of mine brought up the issue. –“You know the Roblot box is a decider in the election for the Choiseul/Saltibus seat?” They both asked.” Hmmm!” I replied. “I have heard of this, but is there any proof to substantiate this.” I continued.

Here is what a little research showed. Digging in St Lucia’s past election results did not come up with figures for the polling station I5, but through discussions with a wide cross-section of elders as well politically savvy persons in the various communities, surely gave me something to ponder on. The elections in 1997, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 20016 have clearly shown this theory to hold water.

Here is a summary:- 1992 - 2016

1. Rufus beat Calderon in Robot and ended the latter’s reign in Choiseul/Saltibus in 1992
2. Fergy beat Rufus in Roblot in 1997 and 2001 and became the Rep
3. Lorne beat Rufus in the Roblot box and became the Rep in 2006
4. Rufus won the polling station in 2011 and became the Rep and
5. Bradley replacing Rufus in 2016 handsomely won the polling station and became the 2nd youngest parliamentarian for Choiseul/Saltibus.

Similar stories were given about the Calderon/Bryan era but they were not conclusive since persons could not positively confirm the winners in that polling dicision during the 1979 – 1992 when Bryan, Calderon Mason and Satney were candidates during that period

In 1982 Gregor Mason and Gilroy Satney and Bryan Charles ran on SLP, PLP, and UWP tickets respectively. Calderon won the 1979 and 1987 elections.

In drawing a conclusion I believe it is fair to say that there might be truth behind this theory.

There are also a few persons who believe that Bryan may not have lost the Roblot polling station but still went on to be the district rep while Calderon did in fact win it.

So I leave the final conclusion in your hands.

DO YOU THINK THAT THE CANDIDATE WHO WINS THE ROBLOT POLLING STATION WINS THE CHOISEUL/SALTIBUS SEAT?  

Results from Polling Station I5 (Roblot Box) for 1969 - 2016

YEAR		REG VOTERS	SLP	UWP	PLP	IND	REJECTED VOTES	VOTES CAST
1969	3783		1461	701			62	2226
1974	3213		1528	1214			59	2801
1979			1683	1170				2853
1982			884	1602	636		3122
1987 Apr, 30	5621		2127	2123			95	4245
1987 Apr 6	5602		1831	1744			75	3650
1992	6346		1798	1847			60	3705
1997	7150		2818	2346			105	5269
2001	7261		2209	2070			104	4383
2006	7613		2506	2586			103	5198
2011	8491		2789	2694			240	5723
2016	8864		2148	2973			189	5304