IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY — SCENARIO-BASED MODEL FOR CHOISEUL / SALTIBUS

In Part 1 of our analysis, we looked at how the 2016 and 2021 election results shaped voter behavior in Choiseul / Saltibus. The findings were clear: this constituency is one of Saint Lucia’s most competitive battlegrounds — loyal, yet open to persuasion.

Now, let’s take it a step further. What if the next general election were held today? Using past data, national sentiment trends, and local dynamics, here’s a look at three likely scenarios — and how they could play out between Bradley “Flex” Felix (UWP) and Keithson “Kiffo” Charles (SLP).

📈 SCENARIO 1: UWP REBOUND — “BRADLEY HOLDS THE FORT”

In this scenario, the UWP regains some of its lost ground nationally and capitalizes on economic or public discontent with the current administration. Felix benefits from his reputation for consistency and his visible presence in Choiseul’s communities.

• Assumed swing: +3% toward UWP
• Projected result: Bradley Felix 56% – Keithson Charles 44%
• Estimated margin: ~500–600 votes

Outcome: Bradley secures a comfortable win, aided by a disciplined ground campaign and voter loyalty built since 2016. However, this depends heavily on whether UWP can rebuild trust nationally and energize its southern base.

📉 SCENARIO 2: SLP SURGE — “THE RED WAVE REACHES CHOISEUL”

This is the scenario where national momentum strongly favors SLP, and the electorate leans toward continuity under the Pierre administration. Keithson Charles successfully converts that national goodwill into local votes by combining SLP’s machinery with fresh energy and grassroots outreach.

• Assumed swing: +5% toward SLP
• Projected result: Keithson Charles 51% – Bradley Felix 49%
• Estimated margin: ~150–200 votes

Outcome: The SLP flips Choiseul / Saltibus for the first time since 2011, making it one of the headline results of the election. This outcome relies on high voter turnout in Labour strongholds (Mongouge, Jetrine, La Fargue) and effective mobilization of first-time voters.

⚖️ SCENARIO 3: NECK-AND-NECK — “TOO CLOSE TO CALL”

In this realistic middle ground, both parties maintain core support but fail to expand meaningfully. The result becomes a game of turnout, messaging, and minor local shifts — where every community and family vote counts.

• Assumed swing: ±2% either way
• Projected result: Bradley Felix 50.5% – Keithson Charles 49.5%
• Estimated margin: under 100 votes

Outcome: A photo finish. The winner could depend on late campaign momentum, independent endorsements, or even weather conditions on Election Day. Constituency-level turnout and community trust become decisive.

🧭 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE MODEL

• Bradley remains competitive even in challenging national conditions, thanks to his personal brand and local visibility.
• Kiffo’s best path to victory lies in maximizing voter turnout and aligning with SLP’s national popularity.
• The swing zone — approximately 4% of the electorate — will determine the outcome. These are the voters who lean based on performance, personality, and tangible development projects.
• Third-party or independent candidates could become spoilers, especially if they draw youth or protest votes.6

🏁 FINAL THOUGHT

For now, Choiseul / Saltibus leans slightly yellow — but the wind could shift quickly. The coming months will test both men’s ability to connect with people, address real issues, and prove who can truly deliver for the south-west.

If the 2016 election was about change, and 2021 about resilience — then the next one will be about credibility.

Follow the full series on Choiseul on the Move as we continue the Election Power Watch series — breaking down every polling division, candidate strategy, and voter trend leading up to Saint Lucia’s next big vote.