SLP’s Next 4–5 Years: The Quiet Succession War, the Richard Frederick Question, and Why Shawn Edward Matters

By Choiseul on the Move

The Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP) has just secured a second consecutive term, and on the surface the message is simple: “We are in control.” But anyone who has watched Caribbean politics long enough knows something else is always happening behind the curtains — especially after a big win.

Yes, government business will roll on. Projects will be announced. Ministers will settle into portfolios. But inside the party? The next 4 to 5 years look set to be a high-stakes internal evolution—a slow-moving, carefully managed contest for who becomes the face of Labour’s next era. And if you listen closely, you can already hear the gears turning.

1) Pierre’s Second Term: Strength Today… Succession Tomorrow

Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre is now governing in a second term after the December 2025 election result delivered Labour a clear victory.  That kind of mandate brings confidence. It also brings something else: the succession conversation starts earlier than people admit.

Let’s say the quiet part out loud: many supporters and insiders already speak as if Pierre is in his final stretch. That doesn’t mean he is weak. It means the party is mature enough to start looking ahead. And when the “next” starts forming in people’s minds, ambition doesn’t sleep — it reorganizes.

2) Ernest Hilaire Is Deputy PM — So Any “Deputy PM Talk” Is Really About the Future

First, facts: Ernest Hilaire is the current Deputy Prime Minister.  So when anyone starts floating Deputy PM speculation, it’s not about removing Hilaire tomorrow. It’s about testing the party’s future architecture: Who rises? Who gets positioned? Who becomes “next in line”?

Hilaire represents a certain style of leadership — measured, policy-heavy, diplomatic, steady. In transition periods, that profile is either:

• the safe bridge to the next generation, or
• the benchmark that challengers try to outshine.

Either way, he becomes central to the story — not because he is in trouble, but because the party’s future will be judged against his model of governance.

3) The Richard Frederick Question: Accepted Fully… or Kept at Arm’s Length?

Now to the man everybody watches like hawk: Richard Frederick. He is a powerful communicator, a national talking point, and a political force whose voice reaches far beyond his constituency. He currently serves as Minister  for Housing and Local Government. 

The question many people are really asking is not whether he influences Labour’s narrative — he already does. The question is: does Labour formalize his place deeper into the party’s inner circle?

Because once that door opens wide, it changes the internal balance. And yes — it could create pressure for bigger titles, bigger visibility, and bigger bargaining power.

Here’s the political truth: if you are the loudest defender, the most consistent mouthpiece, and the most visible fighter, sooner or later you’ll feel entitled to more than “supporting role” status.

Not everyone in the SLP will be comfortable with that. Some will see it as strategic strength. Others will see it as a disruption of traditional pecking order. That tension alone can define a term.

4) Shawn Edward: Why This “Quiet Player” Could Become a Big Factor

Now let’s talk about the name people sometimes forget to place properly on the board: Shawn Edward.

Post-election portfolio adjustments have already put him in a more infrastructure-focused lane. Reports indicate Shawn Edward has been assigned responsibility for Infrastructure and Port Services (and in some official communications, infrastructure-related portfolios are highlighted around him). 

Why does that matter? Because in Saint Lucia, infrastructure is political electricity: roads, ports, projects, contracts, timelines, and delivery. That portfolio can either build reputations… or break them.

And here is where Shawn Edward becomes important in the internal story:

• If the party wants a steady operator who can deliver, he becomes valuable.
• If the party becomes split between “institutional leadership” and “media-warrior leadership,” he can become a balancer.
• If there is a leadership contest later, he can be a kingmaker—or a contender with momentum built through performance.

Transition periods reward the politician who can stay disciplined, avoid unnecessary enemies, and show measurable results. That profile often wins when the noise gets too loud.

5) The Next 4–5 Years, Predicted: Calm on the Outside, Heat on the Inside

Here’s the Choiseul on the Move prediction, straight and clean:

• Pierre will govern firmly, but as the term matures, he will begin managing succession dynamics more actively (even if quietly).
• Ernest Hilaire stays Deputy PM, but becomes the “standard” others are compared to—especially if leadership talk grows. 
• Richard Frederick’s influence will keep expanding, and the party will face a choice: embrace him deeper and benefit from his reach, or keep him at a controlled distance to protect internal balance. 
• Shawn Edward could become more central than people expect because infrastructure delivery is one of the fastest routes to national credibility. 

In short: Labour’s biggest fight may not be the opposition. Labour’s biggest challenge may be managing its own growth without internal ego collisions.

Final Word: SLP Will Not Implode — It Will Transform

Don’t misread this moment. The SLP is not heading for automatic chaos. It is heading into a political reality that every dominant party faces: what happens after the leader who held the centre starts moving toward the exit?

The next 4–5 years will reward discipline, delivery, and strategy. And make no mistake: the internal jockeying has already started — not with insults and open war, but with positioning, portfolios, messaging, and public presence.

Choiseul on the Move will be watching. Because when the “big men” shifting in Castries, Choiseul/Saltibus must always ask: How does this power game affect us on the ground?